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Beyond the supercycle: How technology is reshaping resources

麦肯锡预测先进技术对未来20年全球资源产业的影响

【作       者】:

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【机       构】: 麦肯锡全球研究所
【承研机构】:

【英文机构】: McKinsey Global Institute
【原文地址】: http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/how-technology-is-reshaping-supply-and-demand-for-natural-resources
【发表时间】:

2017-06-26

摘要

What a difference five years makes. Back in November 2011, we published a report on the outlook for resources at a time when demand for resources of all types was rising sharply and commodity prices were surging toward what would become historic highs. As we noted at the time, this upswing in demand marked a historic change from the long-term declining trend in resources, and it was driven in large part by a seemingly insatiable appetite for resources in emerging economies, in particular China. Today, the world looks very different. Global growth has slowed, China is shifting to a consumption-driven economic model, and commodity prices have dropped back. One-hundred-dollar-a-barrel oil is now a distant memory.

What has not changed, however, is a significant trend that was overshadowed by the histrionics of the commodity supercycle: a technology-driven shift that is fundamentally reshaping both the consumption and the production of resources. Technological advances from data analytics to artificial intelligence and robotics are enabling substantial efficiencies in energy use, even as they improve the productivity of resource producers and speed the emergence of renewable energies. While our previous report looked at resources and issues of sustainability, this research focuses on technological advances and their potential impact on resource industries and on the global economy over the next two decades.

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