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CHINA INTERNET = INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS + BUSINESSES CONTINUE TO IMPRESS

2019中国互联网趋势报告,创新产品+商业模式领跑全球

【作       者】:

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【机       构】: 高瓴资本
【承研机构】:

【英文机构】: Hillhouse Capital
【原文地址】: https://www.bondcap.com/#archive
【发表时间】:

2019-06-11

摘要

The report pointed out that the global Internet industry has entered a period of platform development. With the penetration rate of global Internet users has exceeded 50%,although global Internet users are still growing, the growth rate has slowed down. In addition,global smartphone shipments have begun. The year-on-year decline, new growth points have been extremely difficult to obtain.

As China's macro trends tend to be stable over the long term, the urbanization process accelerates, and the service industry continues to drive economic growth, the Internet industry will continue to grow rapidly. At the same time, China has led the world in terms of innovative products and business models.

Global Internet development enters the platform period

The report first pointed out that the current global Internet user penetration rate has exceeded 50%, and new growth has been difficult to find. The total number of Internet users in the world has reached 3.8 billion by 2018, but the year-on-year growth rate has dropped further from 7% last year to 6%. From the trend in recent years, the growth rate of global Internet users has increased since 2014, 2016. The annual growth rate has reached the fastest 10% in the past five years, and the growth rate has declined year by year.

Geographically, the largest number of Internet users is in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 53% of the total number of users worldwide. At the same time, the penetration rate of 48% is far lower than the penetration rate of 80% in Europe and America, which also makes the region grow as users. The most promising area. The number of Internet users in China is the largest in the world, reaching 800 million, accounting for 21% of the total number of users worldwide.

Despite the weakening of the number of people, the use of the Internet is still steadily increasing. The report pointed out that the average digital media consumption in the United States reached 6.3 hours per adult in 2018, an increase of 7%.

Smartphone shipments, after a year-on-year growth in 2017, fell for the first time in 2018.

The report pointed out that large Internet companies have maintained their leading position in the industry in the past year, confirming the phrase "strong and strong", and the technology giants of China and the United States still maintain an unassailable industry position. Of the top 30 Internet companies in the global market capitalization, the United States has 18 and China has 7 of them, the same as in 2017.

Although the status is difficult to shake, the Internet giant's revenue growth rate further slowed down in 2018. The report pointed out that the 2018 global Internet market capitalization company's revenue growth rate was 11% year-on-year, lower than the 2017 level of 13%. From the past trend, the growth rate of Internet giants' revenue has accelerated from the first quarter of 2016 to the highest level of nearly 30% in the first quarter of 2018, and then the growth rate has continued to slow down.

From the perspective of specific industries, e-commerce revenue growth rate has continued to slow down since the fourth quarter of 2017. From the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, there has been a rebound in growth rate, and the first quarter of 2019 has increased. The rate reached 12.4%, which was an increase from the 12.1% year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year.

As far as the Internet advertising business is concerned, Google and Facebook still maintain an absolute leading position in the industry and maintain a good growth rate. Google’s digital advertising business has increased 1.4 times since 2017, and Facebook’s digital advertising business has grown 1.9 times over the same period, but it is worth It is noted that advertising platforms including Amazon, Twitter, Snap, Pinterest and so on have also grown rapidly in the digital advertising business, with a growth of 2.6 times over the same period.

Interest in the Internet technology industry is still high, and the amount of financing in the primary and secondary markets has continued to hit new highs in recent years. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has been out of the bull market for 10 years since 2008. .

China's Internet industry innovation is leading the world

As for the development trend of China's Internet industry, as in previous years, the report has devoted a whole chapter to elaborate. The report first points out that China's macro trend is stable for a long time, although corporate confidence and consumer confidence fluctuate in the short term, but with The service industry continues to drive economic growth, the urbanization process is accelerating, and the per capita disposable income growth of urban areas is still stable and still good in the long run.

In 2018, the number of mobile Internet users in China has reached 820 million, an increase of 9% year-on-year. This growth rate has increased compared with last year. In 2018, mobile Internet data traffic increased by 189% year-on-year, and the growth rate is still accelerating year by year. The short video app is the main factor leading the number of users and the growth of time. The short-term and average daily usage has grown rapidly in the past two years. According to the category, the user's use of mobile short video has contributed to the major increase in duration in recent years.

The report pointed out that the use of games in the Internet industry in China has changed the industries of payment, e-commerce, retail, education, etc., and listed WeChat to start from the small game of “jumping” and gradually develop a huge small The program ecosystem, Alipay through the ant forest as a gamified public welfare form, enhance user activity, and fight for the rapid growth of online shopping through social + games.

The report also pointed out that the Chinese Internet industry has led the world in innovation in some products and business models. For example, WeChat's innovation by instant messaging to promote small programs and payment development has been adopted by many overseas Internet companies, including Kakao, Line, Facebook, etc., including the US Mission, Alipay and other applications, from the relatively single function in the past, gradually expanded into providing The "super app" of many local service functions, this strategy has also been adopted by many overseas technology companies, including Grab, Rappi, Uber and so on.

In terms of retail, the mobile live broadcast brings a personalized and interactive shopping experience, greatly improving the transaction conversion rate, and the new retail concept of online and offline integration, in the reconstruction of the consumer experience in the Internet era.

In terms of education innovation, it is going from the traditional offline to the online, including various online schools, live broadcasts, dual-skills mode, etc., to form online and offline integration.

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